How Mention Market Helper Works

Overview

Mention Market Helper is a research tool designed to help traders analyze Kalshi mention markets. It combines automated web research with AI-powered analysis to provide probability forecasts and reasoning for each term in a mention market.

Our goal is simple: give you the research edge you need to make more informed trading decisions. We scour the internet for relevant news, analyze transcripts and context, and present our findings in a clear, actionable format.

Step 1: Paste a Market URL

Paste this URL into the input field on our homepage and click "Analyze." We support all Kalshi mention market URLs, including series pages with multiple terms.

Step 2: Automatic Market Analysis

Once you submit a URL, our system immediately:

• Fetches Market Data: We pull the current prices, volumes, and status for all terms in the market from Kalshi's API.
• Identifies the Event: We extract the speaker, event type, and timing from the market metadata.
• Displays Current Odds: You'll see the market's current "Yes" prices displayed alongside each term.

This happens in seconds and gives you immediate visibility into what the market is pricing.

Step 3: AI-Powered Research

While you review the market data, our research pipeline runs in the background:

1. Web Search: We search for recent news, articles, and transcripts related to the speaker and event. This includes press releases, financial news, policy announcements, and more.
2. Content Analysis: Our AI reads through the search results, identifying relevant context, historical patterns, and key themes that might influence word choices.
3. Probability Forecasting: For each term in the market, we generate a probability estimate based on the research, along with reasoning bullets explaining our logic.
4. Theme Organization: Related terms are grouped into themes (e.g., "Monetary Policy," "Economic Outlook") to help you understand the broader context.

Step 4: Review Research Results

When the research completes, you'll see:

Understanding the Output

Here's how to interpret our research results:

• Probability (e.g., 65%): Our estimated likelihood that the term will be mentioned. Compare this to the market price to identify potential opportunities.
• High Confidence: Strong supporting evidence from multiple sources, clear historical patterns, or highly relevant current events.
• Medium Confidence: Some supporting evidence but with more uncertainty—use with additional research.
• Rationale Bullets: Click "Why?" on any forecast to see the specific reasoning behind our estimate.

Tips for Best Results

1. Research Early: Run analysis well before the event to have time to do your own additional research.
2. Compare to Market: Our value is in comparing our probabilities to market prices—look for significant gaps.
3. Check Sources: Always click through to source links to verify the context and recency of information.
4. Consider Context: Our AI can miss nuance—use your judgment about the specific situation.
5. Track Results: Over time, note how our forecasts compare to outcomes to calibrate your trust.

Limitations

While we strive to provide high-quality research, there are important limitations to understand:

• Our forecasts are AI-generated estimates, not guarantees.
• We may not have access to the most recent breaking news.
• Historical patterns may not predict future behavior.
• Market prices already incorporate publicly available information.
• Language is inherently unpredictable—speakers often surprise.

This tool is for informational purposes only. Please do your own research before trading.